Gas stations are rationing fuel. Hospitals are reporting dwindling medical supplies. Consumers are hoarding plastic bags, while factories across Asia are warning of packaging shortages.

The growing crisis sweeping parts of Asia is being driven by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes for oil, gas, and industrial materials.

Now, economists and supply chain experts warn that the disruption could eventually spread to the United States, where roughly half of the consumer goods Americans purchase are sourced from Asia.

While no widespread shortages have emerged in the US so far, analysts say prolonged instability in the Middle East could significantly increase the risk in the months ahead.

Asia Feeling Immediate Impact

The effects of the crisis are already visible across major Asian economies heavily dependent on imported energy and raw materials moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Fuel stations in multiple regions have introduced rationing measures. Hospitals are reporting shortages of medical-grade plastics and packaging materials. Manufacturers are struggling to secure components used in food containers, consumer goods, and healthcare products.

The Middle East supplies around:

  • 25% of global polypropylene
  • 20% of global polyethylene
  • 25% of global sulphur
  • 15% of global fertilizer supply

These materials are essential for packaging, healthcare equipment, agriculture, and industrial production.

“You hear a lot about crude oil and gasoline, but petrochemical feedstocks are in short supply too,” said Angie Gildea, global head of oil and gas at KPMG.

Manufacturers Trigger Emergency Clauses

Several leading petrochemical firms, including South Korea’s Yeochun and PCS in Singapore, have reportedly declared force majeure — a legal term meaning companies cannot fulfill supply obligations due to extraordinary circumstances.

Other businesses are already warning of sharp price increases. One condom manufacturer said it could raise prices soon after losing access to key production materials.

Financial markets are also taking notice. The S&P 500’s global supply shortages indicator has climbed sharply in recent weeks, rising above its long-term average for the first time in three years.

Why the US Has Not Been Hit Yet

Despite mounting global pressure, the United States has so far avoided major physical shortages.

Experts say America imports only around 7% of its energy through the Strait of Hormuz and produces most of its domestic fuel supply internally.

“The story for the US is mainly about prices rather than availability,” said Nathan Sheets, global chief economist at Citigroup.

That means Americans are more likely to first notice rising gasoline prices, higher shipping costs, and inflation pressures before seeing empty shelves.

Shortages Could Come Later

Analysts caution that supply disruptions often take months to move through global trade systems.

Stephen Brown, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, estimates it could take:

  • Around 3 months for global plastic shortages to spread widely
  • Around 4 months before automakers face aluminum-related production cuts

Plastics and aluminum are not typically stored in large reserve inventories, increasing vulnerability if the disruption continues.

“The length of this is everything now,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird.

Supply Chains Stronger Than During Pandemic

The US may be better prepared than during the COVID-era shortages because companies have diversified suppliers and improved inventory planning after recent trade wars and pandemic disruptions.

Still, experts warn no system is immune if one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints remains blocked for an extended period.

What Comes Next

If the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, global markets may stabilize and shortages could remain limited.

But if the closure stretches into summer, economists warn shortages could spread across fuel, plastics, auto manufacturing, food packaging, and consumer goods — eventually reaching American households.

For now, the warning signs are flashing overseas.

Stay with ANN – ANish News Network for real-time updates on the global supply chain crisis, oil markets, and economic fallout.